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Since the beginning of this year, the textile market has been difficult to pick up. There are also many different reasons for this phenomenon in the market. But in the final analysis, the global economy is weak, lack of confidence, people have strong risk aversion, reduced willingness to consume, and the overall retail growth is weak, as is the textile and apparel industry.
Taking China as an example, in recent years, the social consumption power is obviously insufficient, and the overall retail cumulative growth rate has been falling all the way, from the 10% growth rate in 2017 to the current 4%. The cost of clothing has also come out of a similar curve, but the decline is faster and falls more ambiguously. In 2018, the cumulative growth rate of clothing retail sales is about 10%, but once it enters 2019, it is a wave of falling cliffs, diving from about 10% to about 2%.
The market for terminal apparel demand is so sluggish, and the upstream textile industry is also unable to protect itself. In the past two years, the cumulative growth rate of the textile industry's operating income has fallen sharply. From the growth rate of around 9% in 2017 to about 2% in 2018, there has even been a negative growth in 2019.
To solve the current predicament of the textile industry, it is inseparable from the individual's efforts, research and development of new products, focus on quality, and foothold on services. However, the economic environment of “the eggs are safe to fall under the nest” does not change, and the consumer market does not pick up, including the textile industry. It is difficult for the industry within the industry to have a chance to reverse the market.
The textile market is underpowered and difficult to see in the peak season.
The textile market, which has been quiet for half a year, has recently been reported to have improved from the dyeing factory. The market reverses the peak season and seems to be in front of us, but the actual situation is not as optimistic as we think.
First of all, in terms of textile raw materials, the textile market is heating up and the production and sales of raw materials are booming. The price will rise immediately. However, polyester FDY, POY and DTY are all at the low end of the year, and the PTA is constantly creating a new low. At this point of the dyeing factory, there is still news that the dyeing fee will not rise and fall. All of these are lack of confidence in textiles now and in the future. I feel that the current state of textiles is not a peak season at all, and it is difficult to promote a peak season.
According to feedback from a gray cloth factory owner in Wujiang area, their grey cloth sales are indeed better than before, but they are still not in a grade before the first two years. Some time ago, the price of raw materials fell. They kept smashing raw materials. In the past, they only had one month of stock, and now they have two months of stock. However, the price of this raw material has not stopped falling, the ideal price of raw materials has been adjusted, and the appreciation of grey cloth has not appeared. As a result, their prices are basically sticking to the cost line, sales are increasing, but it is difficult to say profit. a lot of.
The current order profit is difficult for the boss to sit in the office with peace of mind, and it is normal to go out and run the customer every day to find an order. He has no confidence in the future market. After all, if the business has no profit, it is a waste of time.
Changes in economic policy, the textile industry is expected to "rebirth and reinvigorate"
The difficult situation of consumption and industrial production is fundamentally a question of funding. Consumers' lack of confidence in future wealth growth, as well as limited funds in their hands, have led to a decline in consumption growth momentum; the lack of liquidity in industry has made it difficult to implement equipment upgrades, capacity enhancement, and service improvement.
Through the analysis of the investment and liquid assets data of the textile industry in recent years, it can be clearly found that the growth of investment in the textile industry has decreased and the current assets have decreased. The investment growth rate of the textile industry was around 7% in 2017, but now it has been negative for two consecutive months. The liquid assets fell from the high of 2.8 billion in 2017 to the current 1 billion, with a drop of more than 14%. In the textile industry, while the funds are lost, the investment on the other side is not growing enough. How can such a “dead chess” open the situation?
Since it is a lack of money, the direct and effective solution is to release funds, such as the country to cut interest rates, reduce the deposit reserve ratio and so on. In particular, nearly 30 countries around the world have implemented a loose fiscal policy by cutting interest rates to ease economic pressure. However, China is subject to the CPI (Residents' Price Growth Index), which has remained high for several months. It is afraid that inflation will lead to inflation and has not followed the international trend.
However, the recent adjustment of the mortgage interest rate has released a good news for China's interest rate cuts. The state isolates the mortgage interest rate so that it is no longer subject to the benchmark interest rate. The purpose is to combat rising house prices and to avoid large amounts of capital flowing into the real estate market. In fact, it is also for the market to cut interest rates and a large amount of funds to enter the market, saving the industry from the flood of water. Only by restricting the flow of funds to the real estate market can we ensure that industries that are in urgent need of funds can really benefit.
At present, the new mortgage interest rate policy will be implemented on October 8, which means that China's loose fiscal policy is likely to be implemented after this. Once the funds are obtained, both the industrial and consumer markets will be active immediately. As a clothing need, in the case of sufficient funds in the hands of people, consumption will immediately take off, and the textile industry will inevitably follow.
Xuzhou Heping Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., located in Xuzhou Huaihai Economic Development Zone, provides customers with high-quality and high-quality polypropylene high-strength yarns with the production technology, strict quality control system and high-quality after-sales service. The product performance is good and the price is right, and can support the customized sample. The main products of peaceful production are: polypropylene industrial silk, split film industrial yarn, high-strength polypropylene network wire, polypropylene high-strength wire, polypropylene high-strength wire and other polypropylene products.