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Recently, both PTA long and short sides have been playing around 5,000 points, but in early trading on October 17, the shorts broke through 5000 points in one fell swoop, and the price of the goods fell below 5,000 yuan/ton.
In the summer of 2018, under the background that the growth rate of downstream polyester production capacity was higher than its own production capacity and the low inventory of the whole industry chain, PTA prices came out of a magnificent bull market. It is understood that the current PX processing difference is below $300/ton, PTA processing fee is below 600 yuan/ton, the relative valuation is already low, but the driver is still weak, so the PTA price is consolidating at the bottom and the volatility is slowing down.
Cost-side geopolitical risk premium rises
At present, there is a shortage of 1.6 million barrels per day in the global crude oil market, but it has been suppressed by macroeconomics. Since the third quarter, oil prices have continued to maintain a wide range of oscillations. In the fourth quarter, the supply gap narrowed to 600,000 barrels per day, which is still relatively tight. At the same time, the Saudi Aramco IPO is on the verge of overlapping geopolitical perturbations. From the fundamental analysis, oil prices still have the possibility of overshoot.
The recent trend of naphtha is sharp, compared with crude oil and gasoline and diesel, out of a wave of independent rising prices. According to various sources, after the attack on the Saudi oil and gas separation plant in mid-September, some of the separation devices have not yet resumed production. It is difficult to effectively separate the following components of C5 in Saudi Arabia, making propane and naphtha difficult to sell externally. In addition, in order to ensure the external supply of crude oil, Saudi Arabia will directly supply energy by directly burning light components, and the components below C5 will be more scarce, so that the naphtha cracking spread and the monthly difference will be rapidly pushed up. It is understood that the above situation may still need to continue for half a month to January, so the short-term naphtha end support will be relatively strong.
Increased PX and PTA overhaul in the case of low processing fees
The starting load of the PTA plant continued to be at a high level since August. PX companies have long-term losses, a large number of PX equipment overhaul, external disk Indonesia, Lotte parking overhaul, internal disk Jinling Petrochemical, Qingdao Lidong, Tenglong Aromatics, Hainan Refining and other continuous maintenance or downgrade, PX resources continue in the environment of increased demand and supply reduction Tightening, causing some downstream plants to reduce load. At the same time, the PTA processing fee is as low as 600 yuan / ton. Yisheng Dahua reduced load operation, Honggang Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hanbang all had planned maintenance, and continued to go to stock in October. However, the PTA spot supply is still abundant, so the basis is difficult to strengthen, and the market contradiction is not outstanding.
Terminal demand performance is poor
This year's traditional peak season appears to be "gentle". The profit of the downstream sectors of the textile industry chain is not good, the risk aversion is aggravating, and the willingness to expand business is not strong. At present, the operating rate of polyester enterprises is 92%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms is about 70%; the overall inventory of polyester is concentrated in 13-22 days, and the inventory of weaving factories is maintained for about 40 days. Inventories accumulate, FDY is in a loss, and PTA prices are not well transmitted downstream.
In addition, data show that from January to September 2019, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$177.44 billion, down 1.99% year-on-year, of which textile exports totaled US$891.585, down 0.09% year-on-year; apparel exports totaled US$11.749 billion. It was down 4.74% year-on-year. Both growth rates were significantly lower than last year. The textile industry's overall demand is weaker than last year.
There is still a large degree of uncertainty on the macro level.
Since the beginning of this year, Sino-US economic and trade consultations have been repeated, and the sensitivity of risk assets has gradually decreased. This means that the market has already digested some of the negatives, waiting for a clearer signal. In the long run, it is difficult for China-US economic and trade consultations to be resolved through one or two peace talks. This is an iterative process that will force enterprises in the industrial chain to make low-inventory, low-investment business initiatives, thereby suppressing the long-term demand for commodities.
Based on this, due to the new equipment put into production in October-November, the superimposed processing fee has dropped to a low point, and PTA may have a staged rebound. However, considering that Xinfengming's new 1.1 million tons of new equipment will be commissioned at the end of October, Hengli plans to put into operation at the beginning of January next year. 2.2 million tons will be put into production in December. After December this year, PTA is still a cumulative pattern. The 2001 and 2005 contracts will still face strong short-selling. . Therefore, in the current state, long-term operation still needs to maintain the idea of rebounding short-selling. The risk is that the new device is put into production lower than expected.
Xuzhou Heping Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., located in Xuzhou Huaihai Economic Development Zone, provides customers with high-quality and high-quality polypropylene high-strength yarns with the production technology, strict quality control system and high-quality after-sales service. The product performance is good and the price is right, and can support the customized sample. The main products of peaceful production are: polypropylene industrial silk, split film industrial yarn, high-strength polypropylene network wire, polypropylene high-strength wire, polypropylene high-strength wire and other polypropylene products.