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In recent months, due to the uneven global economic recovery, the sharp rebound of epidemics in many parts of the world, and the arrival of traditional transportation seasons such as Christmas and New Year, congestion has occurred in many European and American ports, but many domestic ports are extremely short of containers. Under such circumstances, many large shipping companies have begun to impose additional charges such as congestion surcharges, peak season surcharges, and shortage of containers.
That is, last week it was revealed that the freight from Yantian to Algeciras had reached a high of 10,000 USD. This week, Sudan has also entered the era of ten thousand yuan freight.
The sea freight from Ningbo to Sudan has exceeded ten thousand U.S. dollars. In addition, the sea freight from Ningbo to the British port of Felixstowe also reached a new high.
Industry analysts said that the "price increase" of container shipping was mainly due to the different degrees of economic recovery in countries around the world after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The current freight rate is almost at its highest level. With the passing of the peak transportation season and the recovery of the global economy, the freight rate will slowly fall.
Corresponding to the growth situation of my country's foreign trade exports is the obvious imbalance of global container shipping capacity resources. In large ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Lianyungang, due to the extreme shortage of containers, the capacity has been greatly affected, resulting in delays in ship berthing operations and delayed exports of some goods. The situation of foreign ports is not optimistic.
The reporter visited the freight forwarding company and learned that not only the volume of goods has increased significantly recently, but the freight prices of major routes have also risen a lot.
For textile workers who do foreign trade, this situation may become even worse.
Textile companies have always been operating at meager profits, and 10%-15% of profits are already very good. Due to the long cycle of overseas textile orders, it is difficult for ordinary companies to consider the fluctuation of freight, so once the price rises due to the shortage of cabinets , In order to fulfill the order, the contract will pay high freight and cause a loss, and it may take several orders to make up for the loss of this order.
Foreign trade this year is indeed very miserable. Foreign trade almost stagnated in the first half of the year, and foreign trade orders began to pick up in the second half of the year. However, this series of shortages of cabinets and rising freight rates have caused profits to be repeatedly diluted. In addition, the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi into the 6.5 yuan era has gradually become prominent.
At the end of the year when foreign trade companies were extremely busy, the renminbi began to appreciate sharply, which brought a haze to foreign trade companies.
Shrinking wealth
Although the signing of RCEP and the new progress of foreign vaccines are supported by good interests, there are still many textile company bosses who say that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the increase in shipping prices will leave little profit.
At present, the production capacity of overseas factories has shrunk significantly due to the impact of the epidemic, making Chinese products have strong global demand. With more orders, revenues and profits have shrunk dramatically during the change of interest rates, which is a huge impact for companies.
Li Yong recalled that since a few months ago, foreign trade orders flocking to the country suddenly increased sharply, and almost all companies received new orders that exceeded expectations. This is a huge benefit for companies that are recovering from the epidemic.
Especially in the five years of this year, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has reached a low point. According to calculations, in recent months, Li Yong's corporate revenue has increased by approximately three times.
But in the days that followed, Li Yong watched the renminbi rise all the way, and the dollar lying in his bank account kept shrinking. This made him unacceptable.
An industry insider said that for relatively small foreign trade companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the best survival rate is 7. After reaching 6.7, foreign trade companies have almost no profits.
Therefore, when the appreciation of the RMB exceeds the psychological expectations of foreign trade companies, many foreign trade companies will calculate profit compression. If the business owner values book losses and hesitates in delivery and exchange, it will lead to "book panic"; Waiting for the devaluation of the RMB can easily cause the embarrassment of lack of liquidity.
One embarrassment is that the current foreign exchange hedging channels for mainland enterprises are still very simple and their hedging capabilities are limited. What is important is that with the appreciation of the renminbi, orders from foreign companies are often accompanied by price reductions.
Cope with the shock of appreciation
In order to minimize the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi on foreign trade companies, the regulatory authorities cancelled the risk reserve for distant purchases in early October, and then “fade out the use” of the countercyclical factor of the central price. In addition, in the past two months, regulators have successively approved more than US$15 billion QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) quotas, hoping to return to neutrality through macro-prudential measures and relax capital outflow channels to ease the rise of the renminbi.
Tan Yaling, president and chief economist of the China Institute of Foreign Exchange Investment, also suggested that the government should introduce a coordination mechanism, such as when the US dollar is exchanged for renminbi, the bank will provide support channels and combine the parameters of the 27 countries’ currencies into the corporate foreign exchange settlement; and Southeast Asia When conducting trade, companies are encouraged to trade in local currencies to avoid exchange rate risks; the government can also support foreign trade companies to deal with exchange rate risks through subsidies and tax cuts.
Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that the RMB exchange rate is expected to experience a process of "fast and slow" appreciation in two-way fluctuations. The exchange rate of USD to RMB is expected to fall to around 6.40 in the first half of 2021. It is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2021, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable for a long time.
However, according to Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Greater China, the United States is still a variable. The Trump administration may introduce some more measures against China. After the new administration takes office, there are some risks. It may also disturb the market in the short term and put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
For textile foreign traders, the recent exchange rate is very worrying, but at least most traders now have orders on hand, which is much better than the situation in the first half of the year when there were no orders to do and rotations.
In the long run, foreign trade orders are picking up, and the appreciation of the renminbi also represents the continuous improvement of China's strength. At least in the textile industry, it has become increasingly difficult for other countries to replace China. In this regard, the editor also reminds all textile foreign traders that when the current foreign trade is unsatisfactory, the future layout of the company still needs to shift to the domestic market. Although it is difficult for companies that do foreign trade for a long time, it is also A way to solve corporate revenue.