- Tell： 0086-516-88400888
- Fax：0086-516-88400888
- E-mail：xzhphx@163.com
- Address：Industrial Zone, Liji Town, Suining County, Xuzhou
On July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics officially announced the performance of the national economy in the first half of 2021. According to preliminary calculations, my country's gross domestic product reached 53.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. This is also the first time in my country's history that the total GDP in the first half of the year has exceeded the 50 trillion yuan mark. This "semi-annual report" can be said to be a very good "transcript".
In just four years, my country's semi-annual GDP has steadily surpassed the two key steps of 40 trillion yuan and 50 trillion yuan, which also shows the good momentum of China's sustainable economic development. In terms of quarterly GDP growth, the latest data shows that GDP in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 18.3% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 5.0% in the past two years, and GDP growth in the second quarter by 7.9%, with an average growth rate of 5.5% in the past two years. The economic recovery is full of momentum.
From the perspective of the troika that drives the economy: consumption, investment, and exports.
First of all, in terms of consumption, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society reached 21 trillion, and the online retail sales exceeded 6 trillion, with a growth rate of 23%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 61.7%, 42.5 percentage points higher than the total capital formation. It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, while the total retail sales maintained a double-digit growth, the retail growth of consumer upgrades such as jewelry, cosmetics, automobiles, and communication equipment showed a rapid growth trend.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June 2021, the national retail sales of gold and silver jewelry reached 152.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%. Auto retail sales amounted to 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. The retail sales of cosmetics was 191.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The retail sales of communications equipment was 300.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, better than market expectations.
In terms of investment, the national fixed asset investment reached 25.5 trillion in the first half of the year, an increase of 12%, of which the growth rate of manufacturing investment reached 19.2%, the highest growth rate, followed by real estate investment, which reached a growth rate of 15%. In addition, investment in short-board sectors has also shown rapid growth. In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries and investment in social sectors increased by an average of 14.6% and 10.7% respectively in two years, which were 10.2 and 6.3 percentage points faster than total investment respectively.
In terms of import and export trade, in the first half of the year, my country achieved an import and export scale of 18.07 trillion yuan, the best level in the same period in history, an increase of 22.8% compared to the same period in 2019, and monthly import and export also achieved year-on-year for 13 consecutive months. Positive growth. Specifically, both imports and exports have increased by more than 20%, exports are close to 10 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 28%, and a trade surplus of 1.6 trillion yuan.
The "second half" of China's economy?
This shows that my country's performance in the first half of the year was not bad in terms of consumption, investment, or exports. Because of this, the overall situation of the consumer market in the second half of the year also makes us look forward to it more. Judging from the economic data in the first half of this year, my country's economy is stabilizing and strengthening, and stabilizing and improving. Looking forward to the third quarter, the fourth quarter and even the "second half", can my country's economic operation continue this good trend?
In fact, the World Bank recently released the latest "Global Economic Outlook" report that predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.6% in 2021, higher than the previous forecast, and the fastest growth rate since the recession in nearly 80 years. Among them, the World Bank's forecast for my country is as high as 8%.
In this regard, if calculated at an economic growth rate of 8%, my country's total economic output this year can reach about 110 trillion yuan. Calculated according to the current exchange rate, 110 trillion yuan is about 17.18 trillion US dollars. So, can my country's GDP reach $17 trillion this year?
Someone said that my country's GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan last year, why was it only 53 trillion yuan in the first half of this year? In fact, under normal circumstances, the GDP in the second half of the year will account for a relatively high proportion of the annual GDP. Therefore, based on previous data analysis, it is very likely that the annual GDP of 2021 will exceed RMB 110 trillion.
Judging from the first half of this year, my country’s GDP is equivalent to 8.22 trillion U.S. dollars at the average exchange rate. As long as it reaches 8.78 trillion U.S. dollars in the second half of the year, the goal of 17 trillion U.S. dollars for the whole year can be achieved. Of course, this must also be considered. Changes in exchange rates. In terms of exchange rates, major institutions currently have relatively optimistic predictions that the RMB will continue to appreciate in 2021.
Therefore, if the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar continues to appreciate in the next few months, the calculation result will be even greater when calculating GDP in US dollars.
What about the performance of the United States? First, judging from the growth of US GDP in the first quarter of this year, it increased by 0.5% to reach 5.3 trillion US dollars. Affected by the continuous "release of water", the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is also likely to continue to grow. According to the US GDP in the second quarter of last year at about 4.87 trillion U.S. dollars, based on this calculation, the U.S. GDP in the second quarter of this year was probably more than 5 trillion U.S. dollars.
Therefore, the US GDP is expected to exceed US$10 trillion in the first half of this year. From the perspective of the whole year, the GDP of the United States this year may return to the level of 2019 and rise again to around US$21 trillion. By then, my country's GDP is likely to reach 80% of the United States, and my country will become the first economy in history to reach 80% of the United States. This will be an unprecedented new achievement. Of course, whether it can be realized depends on our struggle in the second half of the year.